The War Above
ICEYE is a Finnish firm that builds and operates satellites for communications and with SAR capabilities. In short, SAR is high-resolution radar that lets them “see” the ground through clouds and tree cover.
There are many scientific purposes for this, but it is extremely valuable for military use. So they have a lot of defense clients, mostly NATO countries and, since 2022, indirectly to Ukraine.
Russia, thus, has publicly said they consider these satellites to be legitimate military targets. This week, their Kosmos-2612 has been quite obviously hunting ICEYE X36. This is extremely worrying to Europe, as it could be preparation for an attack here on Earth against Finland or even Poland.
But it is also a public relations threat for the US. The Trump administration has made a big deal of space defense, from the Golden Dome to new Starship Troopers cosplay uniforms for the Space Force. ICEYE X36 is owned and operated by ICEYE US, a defense contractor that uses SpaceX for launches. If Putin were to attack it, it would be fair for the media to frame that as an attack on US space assets under Trump’s watch.
I find it suspicious that the recent aggressive posturing of Kosmos-2612 coincides with Trump blocking the Graham Act sanctions on Russian oil exports. With my tinfoil hat on, I suspect Putin knows how to play Trump and has wielded the threat of embarrassment deftly.
Adding more clippings to my red-string wall, I also wonder about the recent crippling of Ukraine frontline forces by Starlink. It’s recently become clear this originated with Elon Musk, leading to speculation about why he seems to be on Team Putin.
Obviously there may be some amount of oligarch solidarity and appreciation of fellow white nationalists. But while I despise Musk to a similar degree as Trump, I credit him with a lot more calculation. It raises my eyebrows that his turn away from Ukraine as a customer (by proxy) towards keeping his system Russian-approved quickly followed the head of Germany’s Space Command publicly worrying about how Kosmos satellites could be used to attack such constellations such as Starlink.
I may be conspiracy-theorizing too hard, but I worry that Russia is quietly waging war on Western interests in space, but being careful to manipulate decision makers through intimidation rather than direct action. We would do well to call them all out, and to ensure less concentration of power across all domains.